Mis-Judging Ohtani, The Black Swan Innovation in Baseball

Shohei Ohtani is a black swan.


Popularized by author Nassim Taleb’s book with the same title, a black swan is a highly improbable event with three characteristics.

1. It is unpredictable.
If, ten years ago, I described the idea of a major league baseball player who was among the best pitchers and the best hitters (and because this person was just an idea, also the fastest player) in the league, you would have dismissed it as impossible.

Maybe 50 years ago, but not today, you’d say. The game is too specialized now.

Too much individualized coaching from early on.

And . . . do you have any idea how hard it is to throw a 95 mph fastball—and at least one other dominant pitch—for strikes consistently against professional? And that’s the easy part compared to consistently hitting a round ball traveling at 95 mph with a round bat?

Think about it.
It’s impossible to be great at both pitching and hitting.

2. It carries massive impact.
The single instance of someone like Shohei Ohtani shatters assumptions and myths about what is possible at the highest levels of baseball expertise.

3. After the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random—and more predictable—than it was.
Well, here we are.

Shohei Ohtani recently earned only 2 out of 30 first place votes for American League MVP.

Two.
Out of 30.

If you haven’t been closely following this unicorn named Ohtani, here's a quick recap.

Arriving in America from Japan in 2018, skepticism abounded about Ohtani's potential to pitch or hit—let alone do both at the same time—in major league baseball.

He did do both and earned the 2018 Rookie of the Year award. In 2021, he earned the American League MVP.

This year he was even better.

As a pitcher, Ohtani finished fourth in balloting for the Cy Young award, given annually to the league’s best pitcher.

As a pitcher, Ohtani:
- won 15 games
- led the league in strikeouts per nine innings
- led the league with 10 games with at least 10 strikeouts - had the fourth lowest earned run average (ERA) at 2.33

As a hitter, Ohtani:
- was third in extra base hits
- was fourth in homers (34)
- was fifth in OPS (On-base % + slugging) - drove in 95 RBIs

Ohtani was the first player ever to qualify among league leaders as a pitcher (162 innings) and a hitter (502 plate appearances) in the same season.

He destroyed the only meaningful comparison in the history of the game, Babe Ruth. (Ruth had 13 wins and 11 homers in 1918; Ohtani had 15 wins and 34 home runs this year.)

Oh yeah, Ohtani is also the fastest player in major league baseball from home plate to first base.

So, what’s the reaction to this re-imagination of the possible?

Two votes out of 30.

The idea of Ohtani is akin to Tom Brady if he played both ways. Imagine Tom Brady, the all-pro quarterback, who was also a defensive back with the skill of Deion Sanders at the same time.

He's like Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins leading the league in scoring while playing goalie at the same time.

That’s impossible, you’d say.
That’s two different people playing two different positions.

Exactly.
That’s the impossibility of Ohtani.

Departing sports, it’s like meeting Johannes Gutenburg, witnessing the birth of the printing press . . . and then giving a book manufacturing award to the monk who hand-copied his last bible 12 percent faster.

You get the idea.
There is no relevant comparison for what Shohei Ohtani is doing.

He is a black swan. He is a unicorn.
He is one of one.

If so, then why did Aaron Judge overwhelmingly win the MVP?

And more importantly for business leaders, what can we learn from this public irrationality?

How can we use this explained-away innovation as a lens to better understand the biases within our own organizations?

Well, here are 10.5 reasons that explain why.

1. Familiarity
Humans are good at like comparisons. We feel confident identifying bigger, faster, versions of something else. We’ve seen guys like Aaron Judge before—Cecil Fielder, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds—and we are accustomed to celebrating them.

See: Shaquille O’Neal (basketball), Derrick Henry (football), and Eric Lindros (hockey).

However, when we meet a black swan, we are forced to reconcile what was previously believed to be impossible.

That is, we are forced to acknowledge we were wrong.

This is not easy. Smart people, especially, struggle to change their opinions and admit they are wrong when confronted with new information.

2. Narrative
Humans are hard-wired to emotionally engage with a simple story. Ohtani’s story (freak-arrives- from-Japan-and-changes-everything-we’ve-ever-known-about-baseball) is not simple.

On the other hand, Aaron Judge has a simple story.

Maybe you’ve heard some talking head say this recently, “Aaron Judge refused a low-ball offer from the Yankees and bet on himself this season . . .”

Aha! It’s an underdog story against the interminably dislikable Steinbrenner dynasty and a GM whose actual last name is Cashman. Everyone loves an underdog, even Yankees fans.

In related news, the Yankees paid Judge $19MM this year. Only in New York City is the idea of an underpaid $19MM employee plausible.

3. Branding
The Yankees are one of the most celebrated, enduring brands in the world. Major League Baseball is more profitable when the Yankees are successful.

Suffice to say the Angels are not a celebrated brand. Hell, they have struggled to simply tell the public where they play! Past branding includes the California Angels, the Anaheim Angels, and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. You see the problem here.

4. Success
The Angels aren’t good. Ohtani has never been on a winning team. Over the last 5 years the Angels are 52 games under .500. The obvious argument against Ohtani is this: “Well, if he’s so good, why don’t the Angels win?”

Fair question.

First, there’s poor management. Second, along with football and fútbol, baseball is a “weakest link” sport. Your team’s winning percentage is based more on who your weakest players are, not your best.

For contrast, basketball success is dictated by your best players. Setting aside the unique dumpster fire that is the Brooklyn Nets, the teams with the best players in the NBA generally win the most.

5. Geography
The West Coast bias is real. Games that start three hours too late on the west coast are given less coverage by national media.

6. Competition
If anyone on the West Coast is worth talking about, it’s the Angels' LA rivals: the Dodgers. The Dodgers have been dominant (regular season only) for a decade.

7. Variety
Avoiding boredom is a human need. We like to keep it fresh. Even if that means rewarding lesser players for annual honors. It’s the only reason Charles Barkley and Karl Malone won MVP awards in basketball during Jordan’s dominance when MJ was the highest scorer and arguably the best defender every single year.

8. Patriotism
There is an instinct to root for the home team—especially when the American in question seems nice, has a great smile, and is tall (Judge is 6’ 7” and tall people are the best).

Given the choice between home grown American talent like Aaron Judge (All rise! Great name to boot—see branding above) and the Japanese Ohtani?

C’mon, man! ‘Merica!

Fine, you say, why then did Ohtani win MVP in 2021?

Well, he deserved it because he’s a black swan unicorn impossibility and because the runner up was Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose name sounds both Russian and Dominican at the same time. (He was born in Canada.)

9. Chicks dig the long ball.
Fact. Aaron Judge hit 16 more home runs than anyone else.

10. Nostalgia
As Aaron Judge homered his way near Roger Maris’s American League record of 61 that has stood since 1961, the Maris family began attending every game—home and away—to see Judge break history. Every time Judge stepped to the plate, an announcer said, “This young

man has captured the imagination of a nation . . . and the Maris family is intent on witnessing history,” or some such blather.

See narrative above—and then add a heavy dollop of nostalgia and you’ve got a potent mix for public approval.

10.5 Sales
Who votes to determine the MVP? News reporters.

Their job is not actually to report the news.
Their job is to sell newspapers (and banner ads).

Aaron Judge—the tall, good guy underdog with a great smile who had a great season—is a human BTITWWADI:

Because
This
Is
The
Way
We’ve
Always
Done
It.

We know how to identify, categorize, package, monetize, and celebrate a guy like Aaron Judge. And sure, he deserves to be celebrated for his outstanding 2022.

Ohtani is something altogether different. He is foreign to us.

Sports shine a very public spotlight on traits and behaviors that exist privately within other institutions. Use this as a lens for evaluating, understanding, and embracing innovation in yours.

Sometimes this innovation is a thing, like the printing press or Artificial Intelligence. Sometimes it’s an individual, like Shohei Ohtani.

Human beings display a predictable pattern of behaving when confronted with true innovation.

First, we ignore it.
Second, we explain it away.
Third, we ridicule it.

Shohei Ohtani is a black swan and a true innovation. Writers gave him just 2 out of 30 first-place votes.

Safe to say we are in phase two.
We are explaining away Shohei Ohtani.

Who—or what—are you explaining away in your business?